Mariusz Kowalski, Przemysław Śleszyński
Conditioning of voter behaviour in the voivodship of Słupsk, Poland
SUMMARY
Introduction
An analysis of voter behaviour in this culturally-diverse area was carried out on the basis of the results of the 1997 parliamentary election. For the purposes of the work, four political options were distinguished in relation to the division operating in Polish political science (into right-of-centre, left-of-centre, liberal and peasant). The right-of-centre option was taken to comprise: Akcja Wyborcza Solidarność (AWS, Solidarity Electoral Action), Ruch Odbudowy Polski (ROP, the Movement for the Reconstruction of Poland), Blok dla Polski (BdP, the Bloc for Poland) and the National Party for Pensioners of the Republic of Poland (KPEiR RP). The "left-of-centre" option was in turn taken to include Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (SLD, the Alliance of the Democratic Left), Unia Pracy (UP, the Labour Union), The National Pensioners' Party (KPEiR) and "Samoobrona" ("Self-Defence"). Finally, the Freedom Union (Unia Wolności, UW) and Union of the Republic's Right (Unia Prawicy Rzeczypospolitej, UPRz) were assigned to the liberal option (taken here in the Polish sense, as relating to support for ideology that is right of centre but above all focused around the free market), while the peasant option was understood to be represented by Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (PSL, the Polish Peasant Party). The basic units of spatial analysis were the electoral districts (aggregated districts in towns and cities), as well as the State Farms existing in the area in 1989 (Fig. 12).
The voivodship of Słupsk as construed prior to the new (aggregative) reorganisation of Poland's administrative division in force from 1.1.99 was a socially-diverse area. The eastern part was very much inhabited by Kaszuby people (Fig. 9), while the western part held those settled in the action to utilise the Western Lands gained by Poland at the end of World War II. Study of the origins of inhabitants in 1950 thus pointed to a clear predominance of those from the former Russian sector of the partitioned Poland (Kosiński 1960). Also included among them were a considerable part of the population in the voivodships of Bydgoszcz and Poznań, whose eastern poviats were within the Congress Kingdom of Poland during the partitions. Overall, it was estimated that c. 40% of the inhabitants of Koszalin voivodship derived from among the people of the Congress Kingdom. Taking second place in terms of numbers were former inhabitants of the eastern margins of Poland lost to the Soviet Union post-War. The third-placed group in turn comprised settlers originating from the former Prussian sector of partitioned Poland (Fig. 11). The data for Koszalin voivodship in its pre-1975 shape are interesting in that they concern a region which had for 30 years been integrating the inhabitants of the eastern part of Western Pomerania into the region's new society.
Spatial differences in voter behaviour
The election results bring out both a distinct spatial differentiation to the distribution of votes cast for different political options, and a difference in turnout (Fig. 1). An area under the strong influence of the right-of-centre option is the voivodship's eastern part, comprising constituencies in the gminas (communities) of Bytów, Lipnica, Studzienice, Tuchomie, Parchowo, Czarna Dąbrówka, Cewice and Nowa Wieś Lęborska. In most of this area's electoral districts, the right-of-centre option gained more than 50% of the valid vote. An elevated level of support could also be observed in the gminas of Kołczygłowy and Borzytuchom bordering onto the aforementioned area. A right-leaning trend was also markedly characteristic of the electoral districts around Słupsk itself, and of the northern part of the voivodship. In turn, the weakest support for the right-of-centre option was that afforded in the eastern and southern parts of the area studied. Overall, support varied in the range between 2.0% (in Nadziejewo electoral district of Czarne gmina) to 72.6% (in Chośnica district or Parchowo gmina). Among the parties making up this option, it was AWS that was of the greatest significance, especially in the gminas of Parchowo, Studzienice, Lipnica and Bytów - all located in the eastern part of the voivodship.
The extent of the more major influence of the left-of-centre option very much coincided with the places in which the right-of-centre alternative was weakest. One exception was, however, the southern part of the voivodship, as well as a scattering of individual districts throughout, in which both of the aforementioned options gained limited support. The most limited share of the vote obtained by the left-of-centre was the 10.2% noted in Żukówko district of Parchowo gmina. This contrasted with the maximum of 76.5% of the vote that this option obtained in Wolinia district of Główczyce gmina. Where the individual parties making up the left-of-centre option were concerned, it was SLD that enjoyed the greatest level of support.
Some gminas exhibited a marked polarisation in voter behaviour. There were, for example, gminas in which both left and right gained more than 40% of the vote (as in Czarna Dąbrówka, Leśnice, Żoruchowo and Rowy).
The liberal option contrasted with those of both the left and right in being weakly supported throughout. Its best result (in excess of 20% of the vote) came from several individual districts scattered throughout the study area. A characteristic feature of those places with relatively strong support is the frequent presence of urban centres in the immediate vicinity (Słupsk, Kępice, Człuchów, Ustka and Sławno).
The peasant option was even less well-favoured, though naturally in receipt of slightly bigger support in rural districts (13.9% of the votes), as opposed to urban ones (3.6%). At the same time, just as there was an inverse correlation between left-of-centre and right-of-centre support, so there was a relationship of this kind between support for the liberal and peasant options. Nevertheless, the latter option differs from the former in having much larger and more distinct areas under the "peasant" influence, above all in the southern part of the voivodship with the electoral districts in the area of rural gminas like Człuchów and Czarne.
Analysis of the interdependence of voter behaviour
For the needs of the study, Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated for the linkage between support for the different political parties and turnout on the one hand, and the presence of former State Farms in electoral districts on the other. The results of the analysis have been presented in the form of a matrix for all electoral districts combined, as well as separately for rural and urban ones (Fig. 2).
It did not prove possible to note any very strong or strong interdependences in the analysed set of 264 rural and urban gminas (values above +/- 0.9 or in the range 0.7-0.9 respectively). A moderately-strong relationship, i.e. with a correlation coefficient in the range +/- 0.4-0.7, was noted in 10 cases, albeit with all of these being negative. Finally, 18 weak relationships (+/- 0.2-0.4) were noted, including 9 that were negative and 9 positive. With a view to the interdependences being presented more precisely, correlation analysis was also carried out for rural and urban electoral districts separately.
No strong or very strong relationships were noted within the analysed set of 161 rural districts, while moderately-strong relationships occurred in 8 cases (in each case with a negative sign). The relationships in question were: left-of-centre - AWS (-0.605), right-of-centre - left-of-centre (-0.606), right-of-centre - SLD (-0.582), SLD - AWS (-0.557), State Farms - turnout (-0.482), left-of-centre option - peasant/PSL option (-0.426), peasant/PSL option - SLD (-0.406) and right-of-centre option - State Farms (-0.403). The above analysis thus confirms that the electorates of the right-of-centre and left-of-centre options can be set against one another.
A weak relationship characterised 36 of the analysed linkages of variables. Positive values for correlation coefficients were noted, inter alia, for the pairs: AWS - turnout (+0.399), ROP - AWS (+0.358), right-of-centre option - turnout (+0.359) and left-of-centre option - State Farms (+0.369). In the light of these findings it is possible to conclude that the right-of-centre electorate in Słupsk voivodship in 1997 was a very disciplined one. Also noticeable is a positive correlation between pairs of groupings making up different options, as well as between habitation of areas in which State Farms formerly operated and greater support for the left-of-centre option (and to some extent also the component groupings thereof). Negative values for correlation coefficients in this group were inter alia characteristic of the pairs: left-of-centre option - turnout (-0.379), right-of-centre option - State Farms (-0.340), liberal option and peasant/PSL option (-0.297) and right-of-centre option and peasant/PSL option (-0.376).
The correlation analysis for urban districts afforded rather similar conclusions. The greatest differences in voter behaviour first and foremost involve turnout (a stronger positive correlation for liberal-option and Freedom Union voters in towns and cities, a negative one for ROP voters), as well as correlations with particular parties and political options. Thus, the stronger positive correlations in urban districts include those between KPEiR and KPEiR RP and KPEiR RP and UP, while the stronger inverse ones relate to the SLD/left-of-centre option versus the PSL/peasant option, as well as the liberal option versus the right-of-centre option. At the same time, the stronger linkages in rural areas are "Samoobrona" against KPEiR and turnout against the right-of-centre option, as well as (inversely) between the liberal and peasant/PSL options.
Particularly characteristic would seem to be the negative correlation coefficient regarding the peasant option as compared with the both its left-of-centre and right-of-centre competitors (or else the component parties thereof). This may attest to the quite distinct identification of a third force whose electorate identifies with neither of the other strongest groupings to the left or right of centre.
The polarisation or domination of voter support
The polarisation of voter behaviour should be understood as that breakdown of support which gives two different electoral groups (parties, groupings or political options) a clear lead over any others and at the same time a similar level of support to each other. The 1997 parliamentary elections did reveal such a polarisation in the former voivodship of Słupsk, and a specially-devised index of polarisation (WP) was therefore employed to present the phenomenon. This was given by the formulae:
, for Amax
1 100
as
well as 
for Amax
= 100, where:
WP is the weighted index of polarisation
Amax the percentage of the vote obtained by the option taking first place
Bmax the percentage of the vote obtained by the option taking second place
Cmin the percentage of the vote obtained by the option taking third place
Dmin the percentage of the vote obtained by the option taking fourth place.
For the purposes of the present study, it was accepted that polarisation applied where:
Amax – Bmax < Bmax – Cmin i Amax + Bmax > 60%
i.e.:
60% – Bmax < Amax < 2Bmax – Cmin
The degree of polarisation of voter behaviour across the left-of-centre/right-of-centre (or right-of-centre/left-of-centre) configuration is presented in Table 6. Such a polarised situation was found to apply in the rural electoral districts mainly in the northern part of the voivodship, as well as in the urban areas of Miastko, Sławno, Słupsk and Ustka. Eleven districts and the town of Czarne witnessed left-of-centre versus peasant option polarisation (in the north-west and south-east of the voivodship), while one district (Tągowie in Tuchomie gmina) had right-of-centre/peasant polarisation, and one (Dębnica Kaszubska in the gmina of the same name) liberal/left-of-centre polarisation.
In the context of the present analysis, it also seemed interesting to study the places in (and extents to) which particular options exert their strongest influence on voter behaviour. To this end, an index of dominance (WD) was calculated, according to the formula
WD =
, where:
WD is the weighted index of dominance;
Amax - the percentage of the vote obtained by the option in first place;
Bmax - the percentage of the vote obtained by the option in second place.
Dominance may be said to have arisen where the option with the greatest number of votes enjoyed support that was relatively high and sufficiently distinct from that afforded to others. For the purposes of the present study, dominance was taken to have arisen where:
Amax > 133% (Bmax) and Amax > 30%
i.e.: 30% < Amax > 133% Bmax
It emerged from the data that dominant support for one option had held true for 129 units (75% of the total number; 120 in rural areas and 9 in towns and cities). Spatial analysis in turn showed that the areas involved were diversified and quite scattered (Fig. 22, Tables 7-8). All four possible types of dominance were to be observed in Słupsk voivodship (i.e. dominant support for the left-of-centre, right-of-centre, peasant and liberal options). The most distinct of these applied to the left-of-centre option, which was dominant in 75 rural districts, as well as the towns and cities of Czarne, Debrzno, Człuchów, Kępice, Miastko, Sławno, Słupsk and Ustka. This dominance was in turn also associated with gminas (communities) of the northern and central parts (Potęgowo, and Kępice and Trzebielino, respectively). When it came to the right-of-centre option, dominant support was shown to have arisen in 36 rural electoral districts as well as in Bytowo. It is mainly feature of the east-central part of the voivodship, i.a. of the gminas of Lipnica, Tuchomie and Parchowo. Dominant support for the peasant option featured in 8 rural electoral districts mainly located in the gminas of Czarne and Człuchów (at the province's southern end). Finally, dominant support for the liberal option was noted in only one electoral district; that of Dębnica Kaszubska.
Civilisational and cultural conditioning of the spatial differences in voter behaviour
Where the right-of-centre and left-of-centre options were concerned, the analysis of voter behaviour in the former voivodship of Słupsk confirms the persistence of attitudes over the period 1990-97. Less durable behaviour had however characterised the electorates of the peasant and liberal options, with the general trend being for left and right to gain ever greater support at the their expense. These observations serve to support the idea of a gradual shaping (or rather strengthening) of two clear and opposing political blocs that the peasant and liberal options do little more than supplement.
There is a widely-held conviction that the spatial differentiation to electoral preferences in Słupsk voivodship may be equated with the area's cultural diversity. Votes for the right are above all linked with the presence of the Kaszuby people - one of Poland's better-defined ethnic groups whose area of occurrence includes the eastern part of the voivodship. At the same time, votes for the left are associated with the communities in the voivodship's western part, which were shaped post-War by the influxes and mixing of settlers from various parts of Poland in a process widely considered to have forged something of a new civilisational and cultural entity (Fig. 2).
This anticipated state of affairs does in fact find confirmation in the analysis of co-dependence carried out. There was a positive (+0.369) correlation between support for the left-of-centre option and the existence of the former State Farms in electoral districts. An inverse correlation (of -0.340) was in turn noted when the latter factor was set against the right-of-centre vote. In addition, there was a moderately-strong correlation between the variable of turnout and the presence of State Farms (-0.482), a weak negative correlation between turnout and support for the left-of-centre option (-0.379) and a weak positive correlation between turnout and the right-of-centre option (+0.359). This would seem to attest to the limited electoral (civil?) activeness of those inhabiting the areas with the former State Farms.
The differences between the two groups of people inhabiting the voivodship of Słupsk would seem to be systemic in nature, with the cultural traits being linked with socioeconomic ones. In the case of the Kaszuby folk we are dealing with a group developing for a much longer period in conditions characterised by the rule of law and civic society, in which the conditions for education, self-development and respect for private property were assured. This conditioning favoured the retention of a cultural traditionalism above all linked with regionalism and a Christian outlook. In turn, in the case of Western Pomerania, the people concerned is largely derived from areas closely linked with the Russian state and subject to its civilisational pressures for at least 100 years (1815-1915). Here the opportunities for the shaping of the customs characteristic of the civil society of a legally-construed state were much more limited, as were conditions for self-development. In contrast, the much greater susceptibility to solutions of the authoritarian kind characteristic of Russian relations may be presumed to have developed here. In addition, the people of the study area were further shaped by an economic and settlement infrastructure inherited from the Prussian state and being very much the legacy of the statist solutions characteristic of its particular road to capitalism. This complicated conditioning favoured the erosion of the society of cultural traditionalism typical of Poland, and it would thus seem that Western Pomerania's combination of Prussian and Russian civilisational impacts greatly facilitated the post-War introduction and operation of a socialist system drawn up along Russian lines. In contrast, in the case of the Kaszuby community, it is possible to speak of conditioning that markedly hampered the aforementioned system's introduction. These observations allow it to be presumed that the differences in behaviour exhibited by the inhabitants of Słupsk voivodship are in fact underpinned by different kinds of systemic conditioning reflecting the impacts on Polish society of civilisational systems at variance with one another (see Koneczny 1935, Huntington 1998). Furthermore, with the benefit of ten years of experience behind us it becomes possible to advance the tentative thesis that the civil traditionalism exhibited by the Kaszuby people offers a more effective path of development than the authoritarian modernisation of Western Pomerania.
These apparent truths applying to Słupsk voivodship can quite clearly be related to the situation observed throughout Poland. It is very characteristic that, surrounded as they are by the unified society of the Prussian partitioners and the Western Lands, the Kaszuby community (and the related Kociewiaks) create what are from the point of view of voter behaviour a very similar island to that formed by the minor nobility in the north-eastern borderland of today's Poland. The latter enclave is surrounded to the west and south by a peasant society typical of those descending from Poland's Russian-dominated Congress Kingdom; to the north by the new society of the Western Lands; and to the east by a Russian Orthodox community. A similar situation is again to be observed in the south of Poland, where ethnic Silesians are bordered upon by a Congress-Kingdom-inspired society to the east (the so-called "Red industrial districts"), and by the new society formed in Lower Silesia to the west. Finally, the society of what was previously Galicia (within the formerly Austrian part of Poland) is bordered upon by oner that derives from the former Congress Kingdom to the north. In each case, the differences in historico-cultural conditioning coincide with electoral preferences in such a characteristic way that communities typical of the Russian- and Prussian-partitioned parts of Poland, as well as the Western Lands, are assuredly more left-wing, while the regional groupings and society of the former Austrian part of Poland are further to the right. It is also characteristic that the Western Lands (in which settlers from the formerly-Austrian parts of Lower Silesia predominate) show a weaker prevalence of the left over the right, while those places dominated by settlers from the former Congress Kingdom and Prussian part of Poland (in Western Pomerania) show a more marked prevalence of this kind (Kowalski 2000).
Summary
The analysis presented is unambiguous in demonstrating the considerable spatial differences in voter behaviour to be observed across the former voivodship of Słupsk. In this study area, socio-economic phenomena have been very strongly linked to the civilisational-cultural factor, with the two augmenting each other in exerting a considerable present-day influence on spatial differences in the electoral behaviour of residents. In connection with this, Słupsk voivodship may be divided into two parts as regards voter preferences: an east-central part (area of settlement of Kaszuby folk) in which the influence of the private sector prevails and there is predominant support for the right-of-centre option; as well as the remainder of the voivodship under the influences of formerly-socialised agriculture and predominant support for the left-of-centre option.
The divisions advocated are not confined to the 1997 election results alone. Similar trends to the spatial distribution of support for the different options have also been noted in previous elections, and the mere fact of a changing administrative system in no way leaves these observations outdated. The cultural specifics of the borderland remain, becoming a characteristic feature of the western (Słupsk) part of the new Pomorskie (Pomerania) voivodship from the beginning of 1999 onwards. Furthermore, it is impossible to avoid noting that the phenomena observed in this area are very much of universal application, constituting but a fragment of nationwide trends to voting behaviour. From this point of view, the situation observed in the discussed cultural borderland serves as an important pointer in understanding the nature of the political divide across Poland, as well as the spatial aspect thereof. In temporal terms too, it remains probable that the electoral configurations observed in the former Słupsk voivodship in 1997 will continue to offer a good guide to the results of future elections.
Translated by James Richards