Present and future state of climate change in Bulgaria and Poland, mitigation of effect and development of sustainable agriculture

Date: 2012-01-01 - 2014-12-31

Supervisor in IGSO PAS: Marek Degórski

Contractors: Krzysztof Błażejczyk, Konrad Czapiewski, Marek Degórski, Paweł Milewski, Jakub Szmyd

Foreign partner: National Institute of Meteorology And Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

The agriculture is the essential sector of Bulgarian and Polish economy which provides food for the population and raw materials for many other industrial branches. The analysis of contemporary agro climatic conditions shows that the moisture conditions of the greatest part of the countries determine the yield of many agricultural crops. The water as element of the Earth climatic system submits to the general physics laws and continuously circles and interacts with the rest climate formatting factors and with the Earth biosphere too. The climate change may significantly affect on plants and on the ecosystem carbon balance. Soil nutrient supply is considered as limiting factor, mostly its nitrogen availability. Also, the lack of balanced sufficiency of soil water for the vegetation may cause high crop losses. The precipitation or the soil moisture depends on increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and it results in plant vegetation.

Joint research will help to achieve:

  1. a database of actual meteorological and agro meteorological information for the recent climate period; 
  2. a common methodology for region-by-region estimation of the agro climatic resources; 
  3. research study on finding the interrelation between biological resources and agro climatic resources (temperatures, rainfalls, soil moisture, etc.); 
  4. calculation the indexes of hydrothermal conditions and assessment of their applicability; 
  5. analysis of the relation between the biological and the agro climatic resources and their spatial presentation; 
  6. some specific recommendations for agricultural output structure on the basis of the zoning of biological and agricultural resources.

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