Complex modelling of road traffic in Poland with the identification of local socio-economic determinants

Date: 2013-01-22 - 2016-10-21

Supervisor: Tomasz Komornicki

Contractors: Tomasz Komornicki, Wojciech Pomianowski, Piotr Rosik, Marcin Stępniak, Przemysław Śleszyński, Piotr Siłka, Barbara Szejgiec-Kolenda, Sławomir Goliszek

Orderer institution: Narodowe Centrum Nauki
No.: 2012/05/B/HS4/04147

(project własny)

Traffic modeling at the national level in Poland has been based thus far on the fragmentary traffic data. The current project aims to develop traffic modeling embracing the whole of Poland, thanks to collaboration of geographers (Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization PAS) and traffic engineers (Cracow University of Technology), not only with the use of traditional gravity model, but also taking advantage of a whole variety of other data concerning local socio-economic determinant factors.Main objective of the project of cognitive and methodological character is defining those areas of Poland at the level o powiat (county) where local socio-economic determinant factors decide about different from the typical of Poland distribution of traffic on the non-urban roads (national and voivodeship), measured in the project by means of gravity model (differences both in plus and in minus). Factors affecting disparate behaviour of traffic participants are going to be identified on the basis of analysis of factors determining the level of motorization, as well as analysis of factors determining traffic generating potentials. The pattern and profile of local labour markets (including their attractiveness) will be of central importance for an appropriate determination of the distance decay function and of the traffic generating potentials.

Subsidiary objective (of applicative-methodological nature) is putting forward research methodology designed for predicting traffic prognosis for the whole of the country on the network of national and voivodeship non-urban roads to provide scientists and traffic engineers dealing with traffic prognosis in Poland with additional supporting instrument that utilizes data derived not only from comprehensive studies at the national, regional and local level, but also on the basis of newly calibrated gravity models that takes into consideration following elements: socio-economic variables.

An additional subsidiary objective (methodological) is development of an instrument (computer application) that would enable researchers to concurrently carry out basic analysis of gravity potential at the regional level within one application. Thanks to development of this tool, it will be possible to conduct computer simulation of the effects of any given infrastructural investment project, on the one hand in the form of – changes in potential, and on the other hand – distribution of traffic in the network. In the project, with the aid of the  application, the so-called ranges of services available on road section will be determined – which will consist in an accurate determination of travel origins for drivers traveling along a given section of national or voivodeship roads.

Publications

Articles, chapters, papers and others

  • Rosik Piotr, Stępniak Marcin, Komornicki Tomasz: Transport policy impact on road accessibility – the example of Eastern Poland. [w]: WCTR Rio 13th Proceedings. Rio de Janeiro: WCTR, 2013 - 10 s.

Articles

Abstracts, reviews, notes

  • Komornicki Tomasz: Poziom motoryzacji, a rozkład przestrzenny ruchu drogowego w Polsce. [w]: "Granice Geografii". Kongres Geografów Polskich, LX Zjazd Polskiego Towarzystwa Geograficznego oraz IX Forum Geografów Polskich w 70-lecie Lubelskiej Geografii. 17-21 czerwca 2015 r., Lublin. Program Kongresu. Streszczenia referatów i posterów. Lublin: Komitet Nauk Geograficznych PAN, PTG (Zarząd Główny i Oddział Lubelski), Wydział Nauk o Ziemi i Gospodarki Przestrzennej UMCS w Lublinie, 2015 - 1 s.
  • Komornicki Tomasz, Rosik Piotr: Road traffic generating potentials in Poland - the spatial analysis. [w]: 55th Congress of the European Regional Science Association: "World Renaissance: Changing roles for people and places", 25-28 August 2015, Lisbon, Portugal. Lisbon: ERSA, 2015 - 1 s.
  • Rosik Piotr, Komornicki Tomasz, Goliszek Sławomir: Complex modelling of road traffic in Poland with the identification of local socioeconomic determinants - preliminary results. [w]: Territorial uncertainty and vulnerability as a challenge for urban and regional policy. Warsaw Regional Forum 2015. Programme and Book of Abstracts. Ed. Piotr Siłka. Warszawa: IGiPZ PAN, Ministerstwo Infrastruktury i Rozwoju, 2015 - s. 39.
  • Rosik Piotr, Komornicki Tomasz, Goliszek Sławomir: Modelowanie dostępności i mobilności w kontekście zróżnicowań regionalnych liczby ludności, PKB i spółek prawa handlowego. [w]: Problematyka 31. Międzynarodowej Konferencji Naukowej nt. "Międzynarodowe uwarunkowania rozwoju przemysłu i usług". Red. Zbigniew Zioło, Wioletta Kilar. Kraków-Warszawa: Zakład Przedsiębiorczości i Gospodarki Przestrzennej. Instytut Geografii. Uniwersytet Pedagogiczny im. Komisji Edukacji Narodowej w Krakowie; Komisja Geografii Przemysłu PTG, 2015 - s. 76.
  • Rosik Piotr, Stępniak Marcin, Komornicki Tomasz: The evaluation of the impact of construction of motorways and expressways in Poland in the years 2004-2015 on accessibility and cohesion. [w]: Challenges for the New Cohesion Policy 2014-2020. An academic and policy debate. Abstract Book. Riga: European Commission, RSA, Latvijas Universitate, 2015 - s. 52-53.
  • Komornicki Tomasz: Changes in Polish transport policy after 2004. [w]: IGU 2014 Book of Abstracts. Cracow: IGU, 2014 - 1 s.

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